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prepare your family for the end times

Dow down 500

9/16/2008

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Gold is cheaper now than it has been in a while.  I think it's a screaming buy in the $700s.  Forecasters are already indicating with some confidence that the Fed will ease interest rates again (which already seem like negative real interest rates, when inflation is rolled in), flooding the market with an even greater supply of dollars.  Dollars look like they will continue to plunge toward worthlessness, and the only way to hedge against that is gold. 

The main reason the dollar has been stronger, temporarily, is  careful coordination with the ECB, which is not allowed to lower interest rates to boost its economy.  They have a single mandate (unlike the dual mandate of the Fed) and are allowed only to stem inflation (ie raise rates) and turn to boosting the dollar (buying US Treasuries) in order to weaken the Euro and stimulate exports.  That can only go on so long.

In the short term, these actions have made gold and oil "look" cheaper, as they are assets priced in this artificially stronger dollar.  The fundamentals of the US economy have only weakened, and there have been no positive structural changes in the US to support a stronger dollar.

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