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Earthquake, Hurricane Within Days... Big Week for the East

8/26/2011

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According to Weather.com's, "Heed the Warnings, Irene a Rare but Dangerous Hurricane," below:

"Irene is a hurricane that poses an extraordinary threat and is one that no one has yet experienced in North Carolina to the mid-Atlantic to the Northeast and New England...

"...There is historical precedence for a hurricane impacting the major metropolitan areas of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast but these hurricanes are rare.
 
"However, with a population explosion along coastal areas of the Northeast during the past several decades, a hurricane this strong hasn't affected the Northeast urban corridor for at least the past two decades.

"Regardless of track and intensity, confidence is growing that Hurricane Irene will cause extensive tree and power line damage. Electricity infrastructure will be greatly compromised for millions if not tens of millions of Americans.

"Recent heavy rains over parts of the Northeast, especially New Jersey, have made tree root systems highly vulnerable. Flooding rains combined with high winds will add to tree destruction."

This is on top of the rare powerful east coast earthquake earlier this week. Even without losing power, it caused residents to scramble for a basic action plan, evacuate buildings and to some extent cities, and, most disturbingly, to lose cell and landline functionality. Ten years after 9/11 -- and after huge investments in mobile internet infrastructure, which didn't really exist back then -- it's shocking and unacceptable.

CNN reports that "For as long as an hour after the quake, wireless customers in Washington and elsewhere reported being unable to get calls through." Also that the FCC is investigating. However, what's to investigate. The system as it stands does not work in a time of crisis.

Sounds like a clear siren to rebalance exposure.
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New Predictions of Conflict in Israel

6/5/2011

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From a contact...Tomorrow (June 3nd), Sunday (June 5th), and Tuesday (June 7th) have been declared as days of Muslim uprising and violence against the Jewish presence in Jerusalem, and against their claim of ownership of the Land of Israel. 

The points below have been sent by an onsite intercessor from Israel.

--The call has gone out for Arabs to assemble at, and to break through, the borders of Israel.  The borders to be challenged are Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Egypt, Gaza, East Jerusalem, and Judea/Samaria (the so called, West Bank) 

--It is uncertain whether the Lebanese Army will hold back the 100,000 “protesters” coming from Beirut, Sidon, and Tyre, from pressing against the Israeli border. 

--It is fairly certain that the UNIFIL “peacekeeping” forces will do absolutely nothing … as they did a few weeks ago on Nakba day when  many Palestinians were killed trying to breech that border.

--The Muslim Brotherhood is behind this campaign, as are Hamas and Iran.  Each are actively recruiting, inciting, or transporting people to the borders.  Hizbullah is also a very active part of this action. Hizbullah leader, Hassan Nasrallah has called for all citizens and armies of Israel’s Arab neighbors to stand up with the Palestinians to take back the land.

--The IDF has been trying to organize a coordinated response with UNIFIL and with the Lebanese Army, but there seems to be a lack of willingness to commit to a united front to sustain the legal, international, borders

--The IDF has been making preparations for the incoming assault.  At the Golan Heights border with Syria, at Majdal Shams, a trench has been dug and defended by barbed wire; creating a barrier against invaders.

--Rubber bullets, water canons, tear gas, etc. are being supplied to the Israeli troops. 

--Rules of engagement have been clarified so that warning shots will be fired into the air first.  If they are ignored, the IDF will aim at the legs to disable invaders in a non-lethal way. 

--The invasion is to create a large number of deaths, through a massive invasion (provoking a massive Israeli response) in order to bring international condemnation down upon Israel. 

--As Syria’s Assad is coming under greater condemnation from his own people for the horrific violence against Syrian protesters, he would like to have a fiasco at the Israeli border to turn the condemnation away from himself and onto the Jews. 

--Israel must defend her international borders in a definitive way that will assert her legal claims and also not put her troops and citizens at risk.
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Great Depression 2.0 - One World Currency?

3/12/2009

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When I began this blog over a year ago, I feared the end times. I had already begun investing in gold many years prior to that, but I feared the worst was ahead of us. I did not expect such an abrupt and cataclysmic financial collapse of the kind we have experienced over the past few months.

However, I did expect we would somehow eventually be where we are now. The question is whether the next step will be further economic collapse, a brief recovery, or some truly dire scenario.

In the last case, of a truly dire scenario, I expect that many people of the sound money, Ron Paul ilk will expect that the US and other world powers will look for a way to tie the dollar and other major currencies to either gold or some gold derivative. That could help the situation.

What truly frightens me though is the concept of moving further away from sound money and deeper into the more precarious technological aspect of fiat currency. 

What I could envision is a world tied together by a single electronic currency, designed to stabilize a flawed financial system gone terribly awry.

It seems possible that the easiest fix would be to create a single world currency, in a digital-only form, much in the same way the Euro was created, but without bothering to print actual paper notes.

In this fashion, the governments of the world could pump financial injections into the balance sheets of banks and various financial institutions where needed, without so much as flipping the on switch at the printing press. It's a concept I've honestly never onceheard  discussed.

Let me know what you think. Drop me an email or add a comment below and we'll sort through this possibility.

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S&P 500 Index to 400

12/10/2008

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According to Bloomberg, CLSA Ltd. strategist Russell Napier thinks so:

"While the 39 percent drop in the S&P this year pushed equity prices below replacement cost, history suggests the ratio must sink further as deflation sets in, he said. The S&P may plunge another 55 percent to a trough of 400 by 2014, the strategist said.

"Things have always looked absolutely terrible at the bottom," said Napier, Institutional Investor’s top-ranked Asia strategist from 1997-1999. With deflation "the value of assets falls and the value of debt stays up, then equity gets crushed. The results are always horrific.""

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Oil or gold?

12/7/2008

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A recent issue of Agora's 5 Minute Forecast contained two useful and interesting concepts.  The first looked at the relationships between oil and gold:

"Oil and gold, two commodities that generally trade in the same direction, appear to be setting up for a historic separation. Currently, it takes 17.5 barrels of crude oil to buy one ounce of gold. The historical average for this ratio is about 15 barrels to the ounce. So… “Either oil is oversold or gold is overbought,” writes Dan Denning.

“For the ratio to return toward its historic average, oil prices would have to rise or gold prices fall. But for the short term, we reckon the ratio will increase, with the oil price falling more and the gold price holding steady or rising. There’s no law of physics that says the ratio must return to 15, but 15 is the average over time.

“Which means 2009 is going to be a strange one. Oil prices should fall to reflect a slowing world economy. Gold prices should rise to reflect the inflationary fires being stoked all over the globe.”"

Second, it discusses a recent World Gold Council report, and the record-breaking figures it cites, including:

* Dollar demand for gold in Q3 was a record $32 billion, 45% higher than the previous record (2Q 2008)

* Europe set an all-time record 1.64 million ounces of gold buying, and with France becoming a net investor for the first time since the 1980s

* Gold ETFs has record quarterly inflow of 4.8 million ounces in Q3.

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Gold miners undervalued?

12/7/2008

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Casey Research recently posted the above image with comments paraphrased below.

The previous ratio low point of the XAU gold stock index to the price of gold was .16, when gold traded around $270 an ounce in 2000.  Today, the XAU is trading only 57% higher than in 2000, while the gold price has increased by 184%.  As a rule of thumb, a ratio above the 25-year average indicates time to sell, and below its average time to buy. With the ratio bouncing off the lowest level since the inception of the XAU index, it signals a screaming buy for gold stocks.

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Citigroup: gold above $2,000 next year

12/3/2008

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Not often you hear talk like this from a bank like Citigroup:

"damage caused by financial excesses ... forced world authorities to take steps never tried before.  This gamble is likely to end in one of two ways: either a resurgence of inflation; or a downward spiral into depression, civil disorder, and possibly wars. Both outcomes will cause a rush for gold."

"Gold traders are playing attention to reports that China is thinking of boosting its gold reserves from 600 tonnes to 4,000 tonnes to diversify away from paper currencies. If true, this is a very material change."


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Dollar v Gold

11/20/2008

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The dollar hit a 52-week high today --- http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/.DIND/tab/2

The USD weighs heavily on gold because gold is priced in dollars.  If the value of gold is increasing, which it is, and the spot price of gold stays level or increases at the same time the dollar strengthens, then the value of gold is in fact increasing.  It's just not in a way that's immediately perceptible.   But, it should eventually become more obvious.

A recent quote from an analyst I trust and pay to read, "...I could discern the sense that the strong U.S. dollar is due for a major correction in the not-too-distant future. This will cause many foreign currencies to appreciate. It will also probably cause the prices of both oil and gold to rise. How soon? We'll probably be well into it during the first quarter of 2009. So it may be time to diversify a portion of your funds out of dollars."

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Dollar strength

10/6/2008

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Per this chart, the strength of the US dollar is weighing heavily on the value of gold.  Expect gold's value to rise as the dollar weakens.

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Dow down 777

9/30/2008

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Yesterday could have been a good time to buy, but when was never entirely certain.  The legislation will likely be bearish for gold, and a purchase sometime after it was passed, would be a good time to pull the trigger (knowing that were it not passed, GLD would likely uptrend somewhat markedly).

The legislation didn't pass.  If the congress somehow passes new legislation this week, GLD will pull back some.

Today gold should continue to drift slowly, and erratically, higher.  However, if the dow rises substantially, which I doubt but which futures seem to indicate, we'll see a temporary but notable downward pressure on the price of gold. 

GLD should rise given the current uncertainty and the Fed's loose monetary policy.

Regardless of what happens today with some confidence, this site's forecast is for gold to end the week up, in the $940-$970 range.

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