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GLD, two months later

5/20/2008

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Two months ago, 3/19, I suggested GLD would stay about where it was for two months and then resume its upward trend.  On May 20th, it checked in at about $89 and today it's about $89, so the sideways part has held true.  (Of course, its mostly languished below $89 in the interim, but that's less relevant to where it's going.)

Agora's 5 Minute Forecast pointed out that the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) today made a new record high and, as a gauge of shipping goods such as grains, ore, and coal, it may be a leading indicator for gold and commodities as evidenced by the charts above.  If true, we may be returning to the bull gold market I was anticipating in May.

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May Day, Indeed

5/4/2008

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Here's an interesting note from Agora's May 1st "5 Min. Forecast" --

"A study released today by the Boston Consulting Group shows that, post credit crisis, China now controls the world’s largest banks :

1 - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China
2 - China Construction Bank
3 - HSBC
4 - Bank of China
5 - Bank of America
6 - Citigroup


When arranged by current market capitalization, it’s clear that the subprime debacle has altered the world’s monetary swagger…"

This is only more true when you factor in the equity stakes Asian countries have purchased in US banks via sovereign wealth funds.  It's frightening to see how quickly that happened. 

Given that China has already RFID-equipped its national ID card, there's no reason to believe it would not want its financial services industry to follow suit.  China is less worried about individual rights than it is about effective controls (when compared to other more developed countries).

If China chooses to lead the way with electronic-only currency, and it becomes tomorrow's financial powerhouse, other nations may have no other choice than to follow suit.

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